EARNINGS & CATALYSTS · October 22, 2026
Eli Lilly (LLY) Earnings October 29, 2026: Estimates, Drug Sales and Guidance
Lilly’s October 29 earnings call puts diabetes and obesity drug sales, pricing, acquired research charges and guidance in focus. Review estimates, prior results and a recent pharmaceutical peer.
| Company | Report date | Window | EPS estimate | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) | October 29, 2026Issuer confirmed | Before open | 5.70 | 22.58B |
1) When will Eli Lilly report Q3 earnings?
Lilly’s October 15 announcement confirms third-quarter results on Thursday, October 29, 2026 and a conference call at 10:00 AM Eastern. The earnings calendar classifies the release as before the market opens; the specific call time is confirmed by the company, while the calendar’s broad release window is a separate field.
2) What are the dated earnings expectations?
The calendar snapshot updated October 22, 2026 at 12:35 PM Eastern lists estimated EPS of $5.70 and estimated revenue of $22.5807 billion. These are vendor estimates rather than Lilly guidance or reported results. The feed does not define the EPS accounting basis. Acquired research and development charges can affect both Lilly’s GAAP and non-GAAP EPS, so an estimate needs a matching charge treatment before it can establish a beat or miss.
3) What do the previous two quarters show?
Lilly reported Q1 revenue of $19.799 billion and Q2 revenue of $22.974 billion. Compared with the respective dated, rounded revenue consensus of $17.82 billion and $20.82 billion, the revenue surprises were approximately 11.1% and 10.3%. Q1 GAAP and non-GAAP EPS were $8.26 and $8.55; Q2 figures were $7.94 and $8.38. Both accounting presentations included acquired research charges of $0.52 per share in Q1 and $3.03 in Q2. The third graphic omits an EPS surprise because matching consensus treatment of those charges was not independently verified.
4) How should guidance and price reactions be interpreted?
In August, Lilly raised its 2026 sales range to $85–87 billion from $82–85 billion. Its non-GAAP EPS range changed to $35.50–36.50 from $35.50–37.00, including the additional second-quarter acquired research charge. These are historical August figures, not a newly confirmed October outlook. Lilly has subsequently posted a third-quarter acquired research and milestone-charge update; its charge treatment must be reconciled with the historical August ranges before drawing an EPS comparison. This preview does not present those August EPS figures as an unchanged October forecast. The earnings graphic measures each release-day regular close through the next trading close, showing follow-through rather than the initial overnight or opening reaction.
5) How the business makes money
Lilly develops and sells prescription medicines across diabetes, obesity, oncology, immunology and neuroscience. Mounjaro and Zepbound contributed $36.507 billion of combined 2025 revenue, while Verzenio contributed $5.723 billion. Product revenue reflects prescriptions, supply availability, rebates and negotiated net prices rather than list prices alone.
6) What to watch
The report can clarify whether Mounjaro and Zepbound volume growth continues to offset lower realized prices. Investors can assess manufacturing capacity, access and reimbursement, operating margins, cash generation and the latest acquired research charges. Progress in oral obesity medicines and the retatrutide pipeline may influence longer-term expectations, but trial results and regulatory milestones do not guarantee commercial outcomes.
7) Recently reported peers
Johnson & Johnson reported October 13 revenue of $25.399 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.59 against dated rounded consensus of $25.38 billion and $2.53. Those imply a revenue surprise of about 0.1% and an adjusted EPS surprise of about 2.4%. It raised its full-year sales midpoint to $101.2 billion and adjusted EPS midpoint by $0.06 to $11.10. GAAP EPS of $0.09 included significant special charges, underscoring the need to match accounting bases. J&J has a different mix of medicines and medical technology, so its results do not establish Lilly’s obesity-drug demand. The chart shows release-day close to next trading close, not a causal attribution.
8) Risks into the report
Risks include pricing pressure, changes in insurance coverage, competing treatments, manufacturing execution, regulatory developments and clinical setbacks. Acquired research and milestone charges can cause large EPS changes even while medicine sales expand. Share-price expectations may already anticipate strong growth, and valuation based on historical earnings does not resolve uncertainty about future margins or demand.