EARNINGS & CATALYSTS · November 11, 2026
TJX earnings preview: can TJ Maxx and Marshalls regain momentum? — November 18, 2026
TJX reports on November 18 before open. Watch whether TJ Maxx and Marshalls recover from slower sales growth, and separate tariff-refund benefits from underlying holiday demand.
| Company | Report date | Window | EPS estimate | Revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) | November 18, 2026Issuer confirmed | Before open | 1.34 | 15.85B |
1) When is the report, and what is the benchmark?
TJX confirmed fiscal third-quarter 2027 results for November 18, 2026 before open. Its August 19 outlook calls for comparable sales growth of 2%–3% and adjusted EPS of $1.30–$1.32. Reported EPS guidance is higher, at $1.36–$1.38, because it includes an expected $0.06 tariff-refund benefit. These are company forecasts, not analyst consensus. The most useful test is whether sales and margins support the holiday outlook without relying on refunds.
2) Why does Marmaxx matter?
Marmaxx generated about 61% of fiscal 2026 revenue, so its performance carries more weight than any other segment. In the second quarter, its comparable sales rose 1%, while HomeGoods and International each grew 7% and Canada grew 6%. Management attributed the Marmaxx shortfall to merchandise execution and said the third quarter had started better. Sustained improvement would make the broader sales outlook more convincing.
3) What did the last two earnings reports show?
Second-quarter revenue was $15.18 billion, just above the $15.16 billion LSEG estimate reported on August 19. Adjusted EPS of $1.22 beat the $1.19 estimate by about 2.5%; reported EPS was $1.36. First-quarter revenue of $14.323 billion exceeded the rounded $14.00 billion consensus reported on May 20, while diluted EPS of $1.19 exceeded $1.02. Shares fell about 4.2% from the August 18 close to the August 19 close after the second-quarter release, versus a 5.7% rise from the May 19 close to the May 20 close after the first-quarter report. A profit beat alone does not determine the stock reaction.
4) What do valuation and the chart suggest?
At the November 10 close of $136.92, TJX traded at about 26.5 times the midpoint of its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance. That makes delivery on growth and margins relevant to the price investors pay. The chart shows a recent support area around $134.50–$136 and a prior trading area around $140–$142. A sustained recovery above $142 would strengthen the rebound; a break below $134.50 would weaken it. Earnings can move the stock beyond these approximate areas.
5) How the business makes money
TJX buys branded apparel, accessories and home merchandise from many suppliers and resells it below conventional retail prices. Its changing assortment encourages repeat visits. Marmaxx is the largest segment, alongside HomeGoods, Canada and International; the value proposition works best when shoppers find compelling products without deep additional markdowns.
6) What to watch
The immediate decision is whether Marmaxx’s early-quarter improvement persisted. Watch comparable sales, merchandise availability and the adjusted margin outlook. TJX raised fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.20 in August from $5.08–$5.15. Maintaining or improving that range alongside healthier sales would carry more information than a refund-driven increase in reported profit.
7) Recently reported peers
Levi Strauss reported on October 7: revenue of about $1.61 billion was slightly below the rounded $1.62 billion LSEG forecast, while adjusted EPS of $0.48 beat $0.36. It raised its annual adjusted EPS outlook to $1.54–$1.56 from $1.46–$1.52, but comparable direct-to-consumer sales were flat. Levi provides recent apparel-demand context; its branded and wholesale operations differ from TJX’s off-price buying model. The comparison highlights why customer demand and profit adjustments deserve separate attention.
8) Risks into the report
The main risks are a continued Marmaxx merchandise mismatch, weaker discretionary spending and higher costs or markdowns that reduce the profit kept from each sale. Tariff refunds can make reported growth look stronger than recurring performance. A disappointing holiday outlook could pressure valuation even if the completed quarter exceeds estimates.
9) Insider activity over the past three months
No insider purchases or sales were reported in the past three months.